Indian
market along with all global markets has
been in a sharp downward trend in last 4
weeks since 25th July.
This fall
has come primarily due to ongoing debt
worries in Europe, policy standstill in US
and recessionary double dip worries.
Nifty has
fallen by 14%, indices in UK have fallen
by 15%, in US by 16% and in Germany by
25%.
Along with
equities, most of the commodities have
also fallen: Zinc fell by 9.5%, Aluminum
by 8%, Copper 7%, Lead 11% and Tin by 17%.
Rise has
been seen only in precious metals. Silver
up by 5%, Platinum by 6% and Gold by
whopping 19%.
Gold –
Silver ratio that had fallen to 0.3 has
now gone up to 0.44 meaning 47%
out-performance by Gold, in last three and
half months. We anticipate even more
out-performance by Gold.
We assume
two possibilities going forward regarding
global macros-
One, that
there will be recession in US and other
developed economies. A fall of over 16% in
S&P 500 index has most of the time
signaled recession. In this, first case
scenario – equity market in US and Europe
will possibly fall further by about 25-30%
in next few qtrs. US GDP numbers of 2nd
quarter has to be seen before concluding
this.
Second
possibilities is that just like past few
quarters, US and other major economies of
the world will keep generating growth
albeit at a very low pace and there will
be another round of liquidity infusion.
Under this second scenario, developed
markets will witness sideways movement,
whereas commodity and emerging market will
see short term bounce back.
Coming to
Indian market we now trade at about 8%
discount to our fair value estimate. And
so presents a good buying point, but we
must keep in our mind that in short term
market may trade below fair value.
Historically during bad global macros, we
have traded even 20-25% below fair value,
but such falls always gets followed by
large upswing. And also one is never sure
in first place that we will trade that
lower.
At current juncture
investors should invest in good and well
managed funds or ETFs. Portfolio approach
is always better than individual stock
picking in equity investment. And in times
of earning downgrades, this becomes even
more important. Data points expected in
next few weeks will bring more clarity as
far as short term stock performance is
concerned.
|
|
Expected Growth (%) y-oy for Q4FY11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sl. NO. |
Company |
Revenue |
Profit after Tax |
|
Sl. NO. |
Company |
Revenue |
Profit after Tax |
|
1 |
ADANIENT |
-14.0 |
69.0 |
|
93 |
JPASSOCIAT |
11.0 |
25.1 |
|
2 |
ADANIPOWER |
243.0 |
127.0 |
|
94 |
JSWSTEEL |
28.3 |
-7.3 |
|
3 |
AIAENG |
45.9 |
38.8 |
|
95 |
JUBILANT |
-8.8 |
-58.3 |
|
4 |
ALBK |
46.9 |
56.2 |
|
96 |
JUBLFOOD |
53.4 |
73.8 |
|
5 |
ALLCARGO |
30.4 |
48.8 |
|
97 |
KALPATPOWR |
17.2 |
25.6 |
|
6 |
ANANTRAJ |
122.3 |
1.2 |
|
98 |
KOTAKBANK |
29.2 |
-7.6 |
|
7 |
ANDHRABANK |
25.3 |
19.0 |
|
99 |
KPIT |
45.4 |
23.9 |
|
8 |
AREVAT&D |
10.0 |
517.1 |
|
100 |
LICHSGFIN |
25.5 |
30.0 |
|
9 |
ARVIND |
24.6 |
64.4 |
|
101 |
LT |
19.9 |
8.2 |
|
10 |
ASHOKLEY |
11.0 |
-7.0 |
|
102 |
LUPIN |
11.4 |
7.8 |
|
11 |
ASIANPAINT |
14.3 |
8.9 |
|
103 |
M&M |
23.7 |
18.8 |
|
12 |
AVENTIS |
13.5 |
23.7 |
|
104 |
M&MFIN |
23.3 |
17.5 |
|
13 |
AXISBANK |
25.0 |
21.7 |
|
105 |
MADHUCON |
17.0 |
323.5 |
|
14 |
BAJAJ-AUTO |
29.3 |
22.8 |
|
106 |
MADRASCEM |
6.1 |
85.9 |
|
15 |
BANKBARODA |
33.5 |
17.4 |
|
107 |
MAHLIFE |
55.3 |
38.1 |
|
16 |
BANKINDIA |
31.2 |
40.6 |
|
108 |
MAHSCOOTER |
10.4 |
-23.1 |
|
17 |
BEL |
16.2 |
91.3 |
|
109 |
MARICO |
21.6 |
8.3 |
|
18 |
BGRENERGY |
-11.0 |
-17.1 |
|
110 |
MARUTI |
15.9 |
-5.9 |
|
19 |
BHARTIARTL |
50.7 |
-21.6 |
|
111 |
MCDOWELL-N |
21.8 |
30.5 |
|
20 |
BHEL |
26.2 |
25.5 |
|
112 |
MIC |
20.7 |
-17.7 |
|
21 |
BIOCON |
6.5 |
9.5 |
|
113 |
MPHASIS |
4.4 |
-17.7 |
|
22 |
BIRLACORPN |
1.5 |
0.6 |
|
114 |
MRPL |
47.6 |
68.2 |
|
23 |
BLUESTARCO |
2.8 |
-20.9 |
|
115 |
MUNDRAPORT |
18.4 |
24.6 |
|
24 |
BPCL |
31.9 |
50.5 |
|
116 |
NAGARCONST |
9.9 |
17.6 |
|
25 |
BRITANNIA |
18.6 |
325.3 |
|
117 |
NATIONALUM |
9.6 |
14.2 |
|
26 |
CADILAHC |
23.2 |
10.7 |
|
118 |
NESTLEIND |
23.2 |
22.0 |
|
27 |
CAIRN |
544.6 |
1031.6 |
|
119 |
NIITLTD |
14.3 |
22.9 |
|
28 |
CANBK |
35.6 |
73.8 |
|
120 |
NIITTECH |
31.2 |
25.8 |
|
29 |
CESC |
14.8 |
19.2 |
|
121 |
NTPC |
19.9 |
22.2 |
|
30 |
CHENNPETRO |
94.3 |
|
|
122 |
OBEROIREAL |
132.1 |
68.2 |
|
31 |
CIPLA |
10.2 |
-4.2 |
|
123 |
OFSS |
9.6 |
55.5 |
|
32 |
COALINDIA |
13.7 |
|
|
124 |
ONGC |
20.9 |
33.9 |
|
33 |
CONCOR |
3.0 |
28.8 |
|
125 |
OPTOCIRCUI |
62.7 |
7.4 |
|
34 |
CORPBANK |
30.8 |
23.6 |
|
126 |
ORIENTBANK |
|
11.3 |
|
35 |
CUMMINSIND |
49.4 |
45.6 |
|
127 |
PANTALOONR |
40.0 |
5.4 |
|
36 |
DABUR |
26.1 |
5.5 |
|
128 |
PATELENG |
-38.4 |
-57.5 |
|
37 |
DBCORP |
16.2 |
32.6 |
|
129 |
PATNI |
9.0 |
-16.1 |
|
38 |
DCHL |
-5.4 |
|
|
130 |
PETRONET |
67.5 |
84.5 |
|
39 |
DENABANK |
41.2 |
1.4 |
|
131 |
PHOENIXLTD |
33.9 |
49.7 |
|
40 |
DEWANHOUS |
39.6 |
54.6 |
|
132 |
PIRGLASS |
13.6 |
125.0 |
|
41 |
DIAPOWER |
35.5 |
15.2 |
|
133 |
PNB |
26.4 |
-2.6 |
|
42 |
DISHMAN |
-4.3 |
-87.2 |
|
134 |
POWERGRID |
16.4 |
9.6 |
|
43 |
DIVISLAB |
0.3 |
-19.7 |
|
135 |
PRAJIND |
37.0 |
16.0 |
|
44 |
DLF |
21.6 |
16.5 |
|
136 |
PRATIBHA |
45.7 |
2.8 |
|
45 |
DRREDDY |
9.5 |
22.5 |
|
137 |
PTC |
32.7 |
144.8 |
|
46 |
EKC |
15.7 |
-35.3 |
|
138 |
PUNJLLOYD |
40.4 |
-106.8 |
|
47 |
ELECON |
27.0 |
21.0 |
|
139 |
PVR |
-6.0 |
|
|
48 |
EMCO |
4.0 |
3.0 |
|
140 |
RAYMOND |
42.4 |
796.5 |
|
49 |
ENIL |
18.2 |
193.2 |
|
141 |
RCOM |
1.7 |
51.7 |
|
50 |
ESCORTS |
19.4 |
-26.7 |
|
142 |
RECLTD |
18.6 |
20.6 |
|
51 |
FEDERALBNK |
7.4 |
28.6 |
|
143 |
RELIANCE |
20.7 |
22.2 |
|
52 |
GAIL |
28.2 |
4.2 |
|
144 |
RELINFRA |
17.1 |
8.3 |
|
53 |
GDL |
14.5 |
0.5 |
|
145 |
RIDDHI
SIDDHI |
32.0 |
140.0 |
|
54 |
GEOMETRIC |
35.1 |
41.3 |
|
146 |
RSYSTEMS |
4.3 |
-67.3 |
|
55 |
GLENMARK |
8.5 |
-4.4 |
|
147 |
SAIL |
1.9 |
-30.2 |
|
56 |
GODREJCP |
92.3 |
43.3 |
|
148 |
SBIN |
41.5 |
45.5 |
|
57 |
GRASIM |
19.6 |
16.9 |
|
149 |
SESAGOA |
29.8 |
26.5 |
|
58 |
GREAVESCOT |
-1.7 |
26.3 |
|
150 |
SHOPERSTOP |
16.8 |
2.6 |
|
59 |
GSKCONS |
18.2 |
17.5 |
|
151 |
SIEMENS |
29.2 |
32.2 |
|
60 |
GSPL |
7.7 |
16.5 |
|
152 |
SIMPLEX |
14.4 |
-20.7 |
|
61 |
GUJAPOLLO |
-2.1 |
14.9 |
|
153 |
SOBHA |
-9.0 |
-15.0 |
|
62 |
HAVELLS |
9.8 |
2.4 |
|
154 |
SOUTHBANK |
165.2 |
70.2 |
|
63 |
HCLTECH |
32.3 |
22.8 |
|
155 |
SRTRANSFIN |
31.8 |
28.6 |
|
64 |
HDFC |
12.1 |
14.3 |
|
156 |
STAR |
28.3 |
12.0 |
|
65 |
HDFCBANK |
24.0 |
31.7 |
|
157 |
STER |
28.8 |
1.3 |
|
66 |
HDIL |
6.4 |
10.6 |
|
158 |
STRTECH |
-5.0 |
-42.0 |
|
67 |
HEROHONDA |
24.9 |
-11.3 |
|
159 |
SUBEX |
17.0 |
203.6 |
|
68 |
HINDALCO |
16.9 |
40.2 |
|
160 |
SUNPHARMA |
29.1 |
17.8 |
|
69 |
HINDDORROL |
22.4 |
47.6 |
|
161 |
SUNTV |
19.4 |
20.8 |
|
70 |
HINDNATGLS |
6.5 |
101.0 |
|
162 |
SUZLON |
-1.6 |
-44.0 |
|
71 |
HINDPETRO |
35.5 |
17.1 |
|
163 |
TATAGLOBAL |
9.0 |
69.0 |
|
72 |
HINDUNILVR |
10.7 |
11.7 |
|
164 |
TATAMOTORS |
26.6 |
59.0 |
|
73 |
HINDZINC |
17.9 |
14.3 |
|
165 |
TATAPOWER |
3.4 |
0.9 |
|
74 |
HSIL |
32.8 |
1.4 |
|
166 |
TATASTEEL |
27.7 |
15.5 |
|
75 |
IBN18 |
21.7 |
-76.3 |
|
167 |
TCS |
32.1 |
21.1 |
|
76 |
ICICIBANK |
15.3 |
33.0 |
|
168 |
TECHM |
7.7 |
-10.6 |
|
77 |
IDBI |
77.7 |
51.1 |
|
169 |
THERMAX |
29.7 |
32.1 |
|
78 |
IDEA |
22.7 |
-7.6 |
|
170 |
TIMETECHNO |
18.9 |
42.3 |
|
79 |
IDFC |
30.1 |
26.4 |
|
171 |
TITAN |
32.7 |
41.4 |
|
80 |
IGL |
77.1 |
41.8 |
|
172 |
TULIP |
13.2 |
6.1 |
|
81 |
INDUSINDBK |
39.9 |
65.7 |
|
173 |
TVSMOTOR |
29.8 |
122.9 |
|
82 |
INFOSYSTCH |
25.5 |
19.6 |
|
174 |
ULTRACEMCO |
122.0 |
104.8 |
|
83 |
INFOTECENT |
34.8 |
-21.5 |
|
175 |
UNIONBANK |
21.0 |
6.1 |
|
84 |
INGVYSYABK |
-0.6 |
62.0 |
|
176 |
UNITECH |
-35.6 |
-31.3 |
|
85 |
IOB |
31.5 |
44.7 |
|
177 |
UNITY |
3.7 |
-4.0 |
|
86 |
IOC |
18.7 |
-26.5 |
|
178 |
UTVSOF |
99.6 |
28.0 |
|
87 |
ITC |
16.0 |
28.2 |
|
179 |
VOLTAMP |
2.3 |
-38.1 |
|
88 |
IVRCLINFRA |
28.4 |
11.6 |
|
180 |
VOLTAS |
2.4 |
-10.5 |
|
89 |
J&KBANK |
23.9 |
22.6 |
|
181 |
VTL |
34.7 |
136.7 |
|
90 |
JAGRAN |
13.1 |
15.1 |
|
182 |
WIPRO |
15.5 |
10.5 |
|
91 |
JKIL |
12.0 |
18.2 |
|
183 |
YESBANK |
35.3 |
43.7 |
|
92 |
JKLAKSHMI |
20.5 |
84.5 |
|
184 |
ZENSARTECH |
69.5 |
33.2 |
